Patrick Coker

The Union is surrounded. To the North, the SNP. To the West, Plaid Cymru. To the North-West, Sinn Fein, and perhaps the most insidious threat the 5^th column of English nationalism headed by, among others, Nigel Farage. Never before has every constituent part of the Union threatened to undermine it. Which of these independence movements are the most credible threat, and what can be done to save the United Kingdom before it’s too late?

THE SCOTTISH SEPERATISTS- THE SNP

The SNP seemingly came out of nowhere. Following decades of Labour primacy in Scotland, at the 2015 general election the SNP attacked like it was the Battle of Bannockburn. Having lost the Scottish Independence referendum a year earlier, the SNP seemed dead in the water. They won only 6 seats at the 2010 general election, and their surprise surge shocked the Labour Party. “Big beasts” such as Jim Murphy, Danny Alexander and Margaret Curran in Scottish Labour were unseated- the party lost 40 of their 41 seats to the SNP. The SNP saw an increase of almost 1,000,000 votes between 2010 and 2015. Following the 2017 general election, the SNP were defanged somewhat. They lost their majority in the Scottish Parliament, and lost seats to both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour- however, they remain a credible force and fierce proponents of independence.

THE WELSH WRECKERS- PLAID CYMRU

Plaid Cymru, out of all the independence movements, probably have the least convincing case for it. Nevertheless, they are a strong voice in the Welsh Assembly, with 11 out of 60 seats, and have 4 seats in the House of Commons. Plaid Cyrmu very much fall into the category of cultural nationalists- one of their main aims is to promote the revival of the Welsh language- as well as being proponents of socialism. Unlike the SNP, Plaid Cymru have never achieved mass electoral success, and since Wales voted to leave the European Union and Plaid Cymru support said body, they are unlikely to be able to capitalise on the “Brexit effect” as the SNP have done. That said, should one domino fall in the United Kingdom, Wales could well follow with Plaid Cymru at its head.

THE INDEFATIGABLE IRISH- SINN FEIN

Sinn Fein are the figureheads of the only separatist movement that has proved just how far they are willing to go. Long named as the political wing of the IRA, many of its leaders, including Gerry Adams and the late Martin McGuiness, have been accused of being in the upper echelons of the terrorist group, and even members of the Army Council. As the second largest party in Northern Ireland, having won 18 seats at the last election (although of course not taking them) Sinn Fein are in a prime position to push for a United Ireland- the only problem being that the DUP are the largest party in Northern Ireland.  Sinn Fein could well capitalise over the issue of Brexit- like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the European Union- more specifically over the possibility of a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Though I believe the resumption of a terrorist campaign in favour of unification is unlikely, the memory of the lengths the IRA once went to remains.

THE EXSANGUINATING ENGLISH- NIGEL FARAGE ET AL

The rise of UKIP in recent years was one of the many indicators of a surge in popular support for specifically English nationalism- crucially different from British nationalism. The increase in support for groups such as the EDL is another sign of this. To my mind, English nationalism is the most dangerous threat out of these, since it works to undermine the Union from its heartland, and provides a convenient bogeyman for separatists around the U.K- that the evil English overlords are seeking to assert their dominance over their poor, embattled slaves; a tactic that has worked quite well in the past. Perhaps a more clear demonstration of “English nationalism” would be the Brexit vote. Although UKIP claim to be the “United Kingdom Independence Party”, the vast majority of their support is in England, they only have electoral success in England, and thus their policies are directed to win over English voters. Though English nationalism is not inherently anti-Unionist, promoting the primacy of England in what is meant to be an equal union is damaging and destabilising. UKIP acts as an unaware stooge for independence movements, proving their claims that the English public want nothing more than for Westminster to rule them with an iron fist. Even something as apparently harmless as calls for a separate English national anthem reinforce the idea that England is an entirely separate entity. The effect of wide spread nationalistic support in the key constituent part of the Union cannot be understated in terms of its demise.

 

What, therefore, can be done? On the one hand, the Union seems to be lost. A tidal wave of nationalistic sentiment threatens to sweep over centuries of co-operation, and destroy a country responsible for countless technological and social advances. The perfect storm of all 4 constituent countries clamouring for further devolution as well as outright independence is putting pressure on an already embattled government wrestling with the issue of Brexit. However, I believe that this storm can be weathered, so long as our politicians keep true and stop shooting themselves in their collective feet when it comes to this issue. A good example of what not to do was, in the immediate aftermath of the Scottish referendum, for (mostly Conservative) members of parliament to campaign for greater rights for England under the slogan “English votes for English laws”. This act passed, and surely there could have been no greater collective spitting in the faces of the supporters of the Union in Scotland than to promptly cut Scottish MPs out of certain votes in the House of Commons. Therefore though the future seems bleak, the best course of action, to quote that much loved phrase, is to “keep calm and carry on”. Further devolution and a move towards federalism will only serve to heighten tensions and lead to further calls for independence, whereas reducing the powers of the devolved representative bodies will give their respective nationalist groups a new avenue of attack. If the government loses their nerve, and fails to stare down these groups, we could be looking at the break-up of the United Kingdom within a decade or two.